Core Idea
Target selections **around 2.00** because prices are plentiful and limits are usually healthier. The strategy works only if you capture **positive EV** at entry and keep tight control of exposure.
Fair Pricing (Model → Market)
1) Build probabilities with your model (ratings/xG/Poisson).
2) Convert to fair odds:
Fair = 1 / p.3) Remove vig from market odds before comparing.
4) **Entry rule:** Bet only if
Book Price > Fair (after vig).Don’t force 2.00. 2.05 with EV beats 2.00 without EV. Line shop aggressively.
Staking & Risk
- Flat units: 1–2% bankroll per play is robust and simple.
- Fractional Kelly: Optional once your edge is proven (¼–½ Kelly). Expect higher variance.
- Stop-loss: Daily/weekly limits (e.g., 5 units/day, 15 units/week). No chasing.
- Volume control: Cap concurrent exposure; avoid stacking correlated picks.
Worked Examples
Even-Money Side
Your model: Team A win p = 0.52 → fair 1.92. Best book 2.02 after vig removal → **EV+**. Flat 1.5% stake.
Totals Near 2.00
Under 2.5 goals: p = 0.51 → fair 1.96. Book 2.00. EV is slim; pass unless you also hold CLV edge historically in this league/time window.
Your Rules & Stop-Loss
- Place only in **liquid** markets (1X2, DNB/+0, Asian -0.25/+0.25, Totals 2.0–2.5).
- Log every bet: price at entry, close, stake, market, league, notes.
- Weekly review: hit rate, mean edge at entry, **CLV%**, and profit per market type.
- Auto-pause after N consecutive losses or hitting weekly stop; resume after review.
Common Traps
- Martingale: Never multiply stakes to “get back to even”.
- Forcing 2.00: The number is not the edge — the price vs your fair is.
- No line shopping: Giving up easy basis points kills long-run ROI.
- Ignoring news windows: Prices around 2.00 move fast on team news; time your entries.
Responsible Play: Even-money doesn’t mean low risk. Keep stakes consistent, follow your stop-loss, and comply with local regulations and operator terms.