Accumulator & Hedging

Accumulator Basics

• Keep it small: 2–3 legs with real edge. Each extra leg multiplies margin and variance.
• Price sensitivity: Line shop aggressively — tiny boosts matter when compounded.
• Bankroll: Unit stakes only. Avoid laddering stakes up just because acca odds are high.

Correlation & CLV

• Correlation: Avoid stacking legs that move together (same team/league/market type).
• CLV tracking: Record your entry vs. closing price for each leg; a good process beats close over time.
• Bonuses/boosts: Treat them as price improvements; still require +EV per leg.

Hedge Math (manual vs. cash-out)

Assume an acca with potential final return R (including stake) if the last leg wins. Before the last leg starts you can:

1. Take Cash-Out from the book (price already includes margin).
2. Manual Hedge by betting the opposite outcome on the exchange or another book.

Target equalized profit using hedge odds O_h and current acca cash value C (what you stand to receive now if you could “lock” without the last leg). A simple equal-profit hedge stake is:

H = (R - C) / O_h

• If last leg **wins**: you receive R, lose hedge stake: net ≈ R - H.
• If last leg **fails**: hedge returns H × O_h, you lose the acca: net ≈ H × O_h.

Adjust H to bias upside (let winners pay more) or downside protection (bigger guaranteed floor). Then compare to **cash-out** — pick the higher expected value given your model win probability.