Arbitrage Betting (Surebets)

Arbitrage Math

Definition: An arbitrage (surebet) exists when the combined implied probabilities across bookmakers are below 100% for mutually exclusive outcomes.

Core Check

arb% = (1/O1 + 1/O2 [+ 1/O3]) × 100 — if arb% < 100, there is a theoretical profit.

Stake Split (Decimal Odds)

For 2-way outcomes with bankroll B and odds O1, O2:

S1 = B × (O2 / (O1 + O2))    S2 = B × (O1 / (O1 + O2)). Equalised return ≈ B × (O1×O2)/(O1+O2).

Three-Way Conversion (1X2 → Two-Way)

Many football arbs resolve via draw-protected markets (DNB, Asian +0). Convert to the market that fills faster and offers higher limits.

Worked Examples

Example 1 — DNB Arb

• Book A: Home DNB @ 2.05
• Book B: Away DNB @ 2.05

Implied sum: 1/2.05 + 1/2.05 = 0.9756 → < 1. For B=200, S1=S2=100. Return =205 regardless → profit 5.

Example 2 — Asian +0 vs 1X2

Neutralise draws by pairing Asian +0 with the opposing 1X2 side. Confirm both legs’ acceptance speed before committing.

Execution Workflow

1. Scan for opportunities (filter football, reputable books, target ROI 1–2%).
2. Pre-fund accounts and enable instant payments.
3. Place the slower-moving leg first; confirm acceptance; place the hedge leg immediately.
4. Log screenshots and fills. Track arb%, ROI, time-to-fill, limits.

Risks & Mitigation

• Price moves / delays: Use faster books; avoid exotic props; operate in lower-latency windows.
• Stake limits: Split across books or reduce stake; prioritise high-limit markets.
• Voids / palpable errors: Wait for acceptance; read rules; avoid error-prone markets.
• KYC & payments: Verify early; diversify balances; prefer instant rails.
• Profiling: Mix bet types, maintain device/network hygiene, respect laws and terms.

Bankroll, Records & Review

• Use a dedicated bankroll; keep unit size small and consistent.
• Ledger columns: Date · Books · Market · O1/O2 · S1/S2 · arb% · ROI · Fill time · Notes.
• Weekly review: hit rate, average ROI/arb, time-to-fill, % voids, recurring issues.

Scanner & Utility Stack

• Arb scanners with football filters, alerts, and regional book support.
• Odds screeners for line shopping and CLV tracking.
• Stake calculators (including partial-fill helpers).