Basics & Notation
Asian Handicap applies a goal handicap h to your selection. Settlement depends on goalDiff = teamGoals − oppGoals:
- Half lines (±0.5, ±1.5…): no pushes; you either win or lose.
- Integer lines (±0, ±1, ±2…): a draw after handicap = push (stake returned).
- Quarter lines (±0.25, ±0.75…): your stake is split equally across adjacent lines (e.g., -0.25 = half on 0 and -0.5).
Quarter Lines (Split Stakes)
Examples (bet on Team A):
- -0.25 → ½ on
0and ½ on-0.5. - +0.25 → ½ on
0and ½ on+0.5. - -0.75 → ½ on
-0.5and ½ on-1.0. - +0.75 → ½ on
+0.5and ½ on+1.0.
This creates half-wins/half-losses when one component pushes and the other wins/loses.
Outcome Mapping (quick view)
| Line | Win if… | Push if… | Lose if… | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (DNB/+0) | goalDiff > 0 | goalDiff = 0 | goalDiff < 0 | Draw = stake refund |
| -0.25 | goalDiff > 0 | — | goalDiff < 0 | Draw = half loss (½ on -0.5 loses, ½ on 0 pushes) |
| +0.25 | goalDiff > 0 | — | goalDiff < 0 | Draw = half win (½ on +0.5 wins, ½ on 0 pushes) |
| -0.5 | goalDiff > 0 | — | goalDiff ≤ 0 | No push |
| +0.5 | goalDiff ≥ 0 | — | goalDiff < 0 | No push |
| -0.75 | goalDiff ≥ 2 | — | goalDiff ≤ 0 | Win by 1 = half win (½ on -0.5 wins, ½ on -1 pushes) |
| +0.75 | goalDiff ≥ 1 | — | goalDiff ≤ -2 | Lose by 1 = half loss (½ on +0.5 loses, ½ on +1 pushes) |
| -1.0 | goalDiff ≥ 2 | goalDiff = 1 | goalDiff ≤ 0 | Integer = push possible |
| +1.0 | goalDiff ≥ 0 | goalDiff = -1 | goalDiff ≤ -2 | Integer = push possible |
goalDiff = Team A goals − Team B goals (bet is on Team A).
Pricing & EV (model → market)
- Estimate scoreline distribution (e.g., Poisson/xG) → derive probabilities for each AHC outcome (win/push/lose).
- Compute fair price from those probabilities. For quarter lines, respect the split across components.
- Remove market vig before comparing. Bet only when
Book > Fair(EV+). - Track CLV (closing line value) to validate your edge per league/time window.