What is Double Chance?
Double Chance (DC) lets you back two of the three 1X2 outcomes in a football match with one bet:
- 1X — Home or Draw
- X2 — Away or Draw
- 12 — Home or Away (i.e., “no draw”)
Because coverage is wider, odds are lower but the hit rate is higher than backing just 1, X, or 2.
Math & Fair Pricing
From Probabilities to Fair Odds
Start with estimated probabilities p1, px, p2 for Home, Draw, Away. Then:
- Fair(1X) =
1 / (p1 + px) - Fair(X2) =
1 / (px + p2) - Fair(12) =
1 / (p1 + p2)
Compare the bookmaker’s DC price with your fair odds. Bet only if the offered price is higher (positive EV).
Implied Probability Shortcut
If you have market 1X2 odds O1, OX, O2, convert to implied probabilities (remove margin if possible). Then recombine for DC probabilities and convert back to fair prices using 1/p.
Double Chance vs Draw No Bet (DNB) & Asian +0
- DNB / Asian +0 — Win pays; draw = stake returned. Higher odds than DC but lower hit-rate.
- 1X / X2 — Win or draw pays. Lower odds than DNB but higher hit-rate.
Rule of thumb: When draw probability is high and you want stability, 1X/X2 often outperforms DNB in EV terms. When you want a better price and can tolerate pushes, DNB/+0 may be superior. Always compare fair odds.
Worked Examples
Example — Under-dog away team
Model: p1=0.43, px=0.30, p2=0.27
- Fair(X2) = 1/(0.30+0.27) ≈ 1.89
- Book X2 = 2.00 → value exists (EV+), variance lower than Away ML.
Example — Heavily favored home side
If p1 is very high, 1X price will be short and rarely value. In such spots, compare DNB or Asian -0.25 instead.
Strategy & Use Cases
- Variance reduction: Use DC to stabilize accumulators or as a hedge leg late in a parlay.
- Model alignment: DC shines when your model projects elevated draw probability (tactical stalemates, derby games, low-pace setups).
- Live betting: After a red card or injury, DC can be a safer entry than ML. Ensure prices reflect the new state.
- Combinations: Pair DC with Under in low-tempo profiles (correlated risk — size stakes conservatively).
Bankroll & Staking
- Use fixed units or fractional Kelly on your calculated edge.
- Track CLV: does your DC price close shorter? Positive CLV signals your read is consistent.
- Keep logs: Date · Market · Odds · Stake · Result · Notes.
Risks
- Mispriced draw probability: Over- or under-estimating px ruins DC decisions.
- Portfolio correlation: Too many DC plays on the same league/round increases systemic risk.
- Accumulator creep: DC feels “safe”; don’t inflate leg counts without EV.