Basics & Mechanics
- Outcomes (bet on Team A): A win → you win; a draw → refund; A loses → you lose.
- Alias: Asian Handicap
+0for Team A (a.k.a. “PK” in some books). - Use case: When you like the favourite or balanced side but want draw protection without paying for draw as a win.
Pricing & EV
Let your model probabilities be pW, pD, pL for win/draw/loss. **DNB** fair price (decimal) for Team A is:
FairDNB = 1 / pW (since draw refunds, loss loses, only win pays)
- Remove market vig before comparisons.
- Bet only when
BookDNB > FairDNB→ positive EV. - Track CLV (closing price) to validate edge by league/time window.
DNB vs DC vs +0.25
Double Chance (DC: Win or Draw)
DC pays on draw but the price is lower. If you expect draws to be common and wins rare, DC might be superior. If you expect wins to drive edge, DNB often prices better.
Asian +0.25
Stake is split: ½ on +0 (DNB) and ½ on +0.5 (win on draw). On a draw, you get a half-win. Price is lower than pure DNB; risk is lower too. Choose based on your model risk profile.
Staking & Review
- Flat units: 1–2% bankroll per play is robust.
- Fractional Kelly: Optional for validated edges; use caps to control drawdowns.
- Review: Weekly CLV, hit rate, ROI by market (DNB vs ML vs +0.25).
Responsible Play: Protection is not profit. Keep discipline, line shop, and follow local regulations.