Why Line Shopping Wins
- Free edge: You don’t need a better model to gain ROI — just a better price.
- Compounding: +0.02 to +0.10 per bet compounds across the portfolio.
- Variance buffer: Better entry prices soften drawdowns and improve ROR.
De-Vigging in Practice
- Convert odds → implied probs, normalise to 100% to remove margin.
- Compare de-vigged implied to your model probability (
1 / Fair). - Bet when
Book > Fairafter the vig is removed.
CLV (Closing Line Value)
- Record each bet: entry time/price, close price, book, market.
- Positive CLV over hundreds of bets signals genuine edge even if short-term ROI is noisy.
- Segment CLV by league/market/time window to see where your process really bites.
Ops, Limits & Hygiene
- Accounts: Multiple books and an exchange improve coverage and limits.
- Speed: For live markets, automate alerts; for pre-match, schedule checks around team news and move windows.
- Consistency: Flat staking or fractional Kelly; don’t ladder stakes to chase price FOMO.
Responsible Play: Line shopping is a process edge, not a guarantee. Keep logs, respect limits, and comply with local regulations.