Tempo & xG Pace
- Tempo reads: Possession speed, territory, pressure, and shot quality (not just count) drive live goal rate.
- xG pace: Express current intensity as
xG/90. Compare to pre-match baseline to decide if totals should drift. - Persistence: Sustained tempo (5–10 minutes) is more predictive than one burst.
Red Cards & Fatigue
- +1 man: Early cards lift goal rate moderately; late cards with a chasing side can spike it.
- -1 man: Expect lower shot quality for the short-handed side and rising late fatigue.
- Double yellows: Momentum swings often last 3–5 minutes; avoid snap entries during peak volatility unless your model says the price still lags.
Clock & Game State
- Time decay: Every minute without a goal reduces remaining opportunity; totals should slide unless tempo compensates.
- Score incentives: Trailing teams accelerate; leaders slow or counter. Adjust λ by state.
- Stoppage time: Add realistic minutes (VAR, injuries) to your remaining time estimate.
Timing Entries
- Let price drift during low-tempo patches.
- Enter when tempo/xG pace lifts and your fair exceeds book price after vig removal.
- Avoid chasing after goals; reassess once markets settle.
- Prefer exchanges/line shopping; even 1–2 ticks matter live.
Risk & Review
- Staking: Start small; live variance is higher.
- Logs: Record minute, state, price, and a brief narrative (“press + red 65’”).
- Post-mortem: Sort wins/losses by signal quality, not outcome; keep the best signals, drop noisy ones.
Responsible Play: Live markets move fast. Pre-define stop rules, avoid tilt, and comply with local regulations.