Why Singles?
- Transparency: Each pick stands alone; EV and results are easy to audit.
- Bankroll stability: Avoids the compounding risk of long multiples.
- Learning speed: Fast feedback on modelling choices via CLV.
Model → Market Pricing Workflow
1
Make probabilities
Use your model (xG/Poisson/ratings) to estimate p. Convert to fair odds: Fair = 1 / p.
2
Shop lines
Compare multiple books. Only bet when Book > Fair after margin adjustment.
3
Place & record
Log price, time, stake, market. Screenshot if you’re testing fills or new books.
Staking & Risk
- Flat staking: 1–2% bankroll per bet is robust for most users.
- Fractional Kelly: For proven edges; expect higher variance. Use ½ or ¼ Kelly.
- Stop rules: No chasing. Pre-define volume limits per day/week.
Worked Examples
Value side
Your model: Home win p=0.44 → fair 2.27. Best book price 2.40 → **EV+**. Flat 1.5% stake.
Totals example
Under 2.5 goals: p=0.56 → fair 1.79. Book 1.86. Good at early numbers; re-price after team news.
CLV & Weekly Review
- CLV metric: Compare your price to the close. Positive CLV trend validates your process.
- Dashboard: Hit rate, average edge at entry, CLV %, profit per market type.
- Iterate: Adjust model weights and market windows; remove weak leagues.
Common Errors to Avoid
- Betting narrative without price advantage.
- Skipping line shopping.
- Changing stake size emotionally.
- Ignoring injury/news windows near market moves.
Responsible Play: Singles reduce variance vs multiples, but risk remains. Bet within your means and follow local regulations.