Totals (Over/Under)

Bet on goals, not winners. Build a goal rate λ from xG/ratings, price lines with Poisson, then take only Book > Fair edges. Track **CLV** to validate.

λ (expected goals, total)
≈ 2.2–3.0
Key Lines
2.0 • 2.25 • 2.5 • 2.75
Fair Over 2.5
P(Goals ≥ 3)
Fair Under 2.5
P(Goals ≤ 2)

Modelling λ (xG → Poisson)

  • Estimate expected goals for each side: λ_home, λ_away from xG/ratings/form/pace.
  • Total rate: λ = λ_home + λ_away.
  • Approximate goals with Poisson(λ) to get P(Total=k) for k=0…
  • Adjust λ for game state factors (tempo, weather, cards, schedule density).

Pricing Common Lines

  • Over 2.5: P(Total ≥ 3) = 1 − Σ P(k) for k≤2
  • Under 2.5: P(Total ≤ 2) = Σ P(k) for k≤2
  • 2.0 / 2.25 / 2.75: treat as split lines (e.g., U2.25 = ½ U2.0 + ½ U2.5).
  • Convert probability to Fair (decimal): 1 / p.

EV, Vig & CLV

  • De-vig the book: convert odds to implied probabilities, normalise to 100%.
  • EV+ only when Book > Fair after vig removal.
  • CLV: log entry vs. close. A consistent edge should beat close over time.

Worked Examples

Example — λ = 2.65, Over/Under 2.5

Compute P(0), P(1), P(2) via Poisson, then P(Over 2.5)=1−(P0+P1+P2). Compare fair vs de-vigged book price.

Responsible Play: Totals can swing hard on red cards and late game state. Keep stakes consistent, define stop rules, and follow local regulations.

Totals Betting Resource Library (400+)

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