Lens vs Toulouse prediction: Lens to win
Lens rate better at both ends – 2.0 expected for, 0.9 against. Lens's recent sample is poor: LLL. The 1.51 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The model makes Lens strong home favourites (63%). Table: Lens 11th (13 pts), Toulouse 12th (13 pts).
Recent form
The last four for Lens read W W D L (two wins). Most recent: v Angers, 5–1 (won). The attack is running at 2.8 per game.
The last three for Toulouse read L W L (one win). Most recent: at Paris Saint Germain, 1–3 (lost). Output is high: 2.0 goals a game across the sample.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Lens 2.0, Toulouse 0.9 – 2.9 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 56%, both to score at 55%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Lens to win – Mind Score 63, bookmaker price around 1.51 against a fair 1.58. Likeliest score: Lens 2–0 Toulouse. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Lens
last 4- Wv Angers5–120 Mar
- Wv Metz3–08 Mar
- D@ Strasbourg1–127 Feb
- Lv Monaco2–321 Feb
Toulouse
last 3- L@ Paris Saint Germain1–33 Apr
- W@ Metz4–315 Mar
- L@ Le Havre1–215 Feb
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Lens vs Toulouse?
The Mind pick is Lens to win with a Mind Score of 63, priced around 1.51 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Lens or Toulouse?
The model gives Lens 63%, the draw 22% and Toulouse 15%.
What is the likeliest score in Lens vs Toulouse?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Lens 2–0 Toulouse.
How many goals are expected in Lens vs Toulouse?
Around 2.9 in total – over 2.5 rates 56% and both teams to score 55%.
When does Lens vs Toulouse kick off?
Friday 17 April 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Stade Bollaert-Delelis – Ligue 1.