Over/under 1.5 goals predictions

The over/under 1.5 numbers, today

372 qualifying games on Saturday 14 November, average Mind Score 77. Highest still to play: Ciervos vs La Tribu de Cd. Juarez (Liga Premier Serie A) – Over 1.5 goals, MS 92. Leagues with the most entries: England FA Trophy (17), England League Two (12), England League One (12). 2 carry a price longer than the model's fair odds.

Over/under 1.5 explained

Over/Under 1.5 goals asks whether the match produces two goals or more (over) or one at most (under).

Over 1.5: 1–1, 2–0 and 3–2 win; 0–0 and 1–0 lose. Under 1.5 is the mirror image. Over prices typically run from 1.15 to 1.45.

When the model likes it

We list a game when the goal projection sits well clear of the line in either direction and the probability passes 55%. A projection near 2.0 goals is too close to call.

Rules of thumb

• Check each side's expected goals on the match page.
• A goalless first 25 minutes improves the in-play price.
• Keep over 1.5 combinations to two or three legs.

Where these numbers come from

The model rates each team's attack and defence from roughly a season of results, weighted towards recent games. Those ratings give a goal projection for both sides, and the projection becomes a grid of every possible score. Every market – this one included – is read from that grid, so a match's picks never contradict each other. Bookmaker prices are shown alongside; when the Mind Score beats what the price implies, the pick carries value. Full detail on how the model works.

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