Does the Mind Score tell the truth?
Every Mind pick carries a score from 0 to 100 – the model's chance that it lands. Here is every settled pick, grouped by that score, set against what really happened.
Promised against delivered
Each dot is a group of picks. Across: the average Mind Score the model gave them. Up: how many actually landed. On the dashed line, the score was exactly right; above it, the picks did better than promised. In 7 of 7 steps, a higher score group landed at least as often as the one below it.
Real hit rate (bigger dot = more picks) Perfect calibration
| Mind Score | Picks | Promised | Landed | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS Under 55 | 2046 | 52% | 52% | +0 |
| MS 55–59 | 3079 | 57% | 53% | -4 |
| MS 60–64 | 5961 | 62% | 58% | -4 |
| MS 65–69 | 5166 | 67% | 65% | -2 |
| MS 70–74 | 2648 | 72% | 73% | +1 |
| MS 75–79 | 2535 | 77% | 76% | -1 |
| MS 80–84 | 1901 | 82% | 76% | -6 |
| MS 85+ | 1157 | 87% | 78% | -9 |
By market
| Market | Picks | Avg MS | Landed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score: yes | 7376 | 61 | 57% |
| Match result (1X2) | 6270 | 65 | 62% |
| Double chance | 3112 | 83 | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2153 | 65 | 67% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 2071 | 75 | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1673 | 73 | 72% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1215 | 61 | 59% |
| Both teams to score: no | 591 | 53 | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30 | 63 | 53% |
Week by week
What the Mind Score is – and is not
The Mind Score is the model's probability for a pick, written as a number from 0 to 100. The model projects each team's goals from attack and defence ratings, form and home advantage, turns those into a grid of every likely scoreline, then reads the chance of each market from that grid. A pick with MS 72 is one the model expects to land about 72 times in 100.
That makes it testable. If MS 70 picks only landed half the time, the score would be lying – and this page would show it. If they landed seven times in ten, the score is doing its job. Short runs swing either way; over hundreds of picks the dots should sit near the dashed line.
A Mind Score is not a guarantee, and it is not a stake instruction on its own. Always compare it with the price: a high score at a poor price is still a poor bet. Read how to read football predictions for the full method, or see the complete track record.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Mind Score?
A number from 0 to 100 on every FootyMind pick. It is the model's probability for that selection: MS 70 means the model expects it to land about seven times in ten.
How do I know the Mind Score is honest?
This page checks it. Every settled pick is grouped by its score, and the real hit rate of each group is set against what the score promised. Over 90 days: 24493 picks, average MS 67, landed 64%.
Does a higher Mind Score always win?
No. A higher score wins more often, not every time. An MS 80 pick should still lose about one time in five.
How are picks settled?
On the score after 90 minutes and stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count; called-off games are void and left out.