The track record
Every Mind pick settled on 90 minutes – calibrated by Mind Score band, then split by market and league. The good and the bad. Is the Mind Score honest? See the proof →
Calibration: does MS 70 land 7 times in 10?
A well-calibrated model lands its MS 70 picks about seven times in ten. Each band compares the average Mind Score with the real hit rate:
landed average Mind Score · Full Mind Score proof →
Hit rate by market
| # | Market | Picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Both teams to score: yes | 2809 | 57% |
| 2 | Match result (1X2) | 2206 | 62% |
| 3 | Double chance | 1000 | 78% |
| 4 | Over 1.5 goals | 750 | 73% |
| 5 | Over 2.5 goals | 702 | 69% |
| 6 | Under 3.5 goals | 669 | 70% |
| 7 | Under 2.5 goals | 318 | 61% |
| 8 | Both teams to score: no | 157 | 62% |
| 9 | Over 3.5 goals | 12 | 67% |
Hit rate by league
| # | League | Picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Major League Soccer USA | 90 | 61% |
| 2 | FA Cup England | 67 | 63% |
| 3 | Championship England | 61 | 61% |
| 4 | Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina | 60 | 72% |
| 5 | UEFA Europa Conference League Europe | 54 | 63% |
| 6 | UEFA Europa League Europe | 53 | 62% |
| 7 | Serie A Italy | 50 | 68% |
| 8 | Copa Del Rey Spain | 42 | 71% |
| 9 | La Liga Spain | 41 | 66% |
| 10 | Premier League England | 40 | 58% |
| 11 | Serie A Brazil | 40 | 55% |
| 12 | Süper Lig Turkey | 36 | 72% |
| 13 | Eredivisie Netherlands | 36 | 69% |
| 14 | Ligue 1 France | 36 | 69% |
| 15 | Bundesliga Germany | 36 | 61% |
| 16 | UEFA Champions League Europe | 36 | 75% |
| 17 | Pro League Saudi-Arabia | 29 | 69% |
| 18 | Premiership Scotland | 27 | 74% |
| 19 | Primeira Liga Portugal | 27 | 56% |
| 20 | FKF Premier League Kenya | 19 | 53% |
| 21 | DFB Pokal Germany | 16 | 50% |
| 22 | NPFL Nigeria | 15 | 47% |
| 23 | Reserve League Argentina | 62 | 60% |
| 24 | UEFA Youth League Europe | 61 | 64% |
| 25 | J3 League Japan | 60 | 62% |
| 26 | League One England | 56 | 59% |
| 27 | First Amateur Division Belgium | 55 | 67% |
| 28 | National League South England | 55 | 69% |
| 29 | 2. Lig Turkey | 51 | 69% |
| 30 | J1 League Japan | 50 | 54% |
| 31 | Serie B Italy | 50 | 58% |
| 32 | Primera A Colombia | 49 | 63% |
| 33 | Non League Premier Southern Central England | 49 | 71% |
| 34 | Non League Premier Southern South England | 49 | 67% |
| 35 | J2 League Japan | 49 | 67% |
| 36 | Liga Alef Israel | 49 | 51% |
| 37 | League Two England | 49 | 61% |
| 38 | Primera Nacional Argentina | 48 | 48% |
| 39 | Liga MX Mexico | 46 | 65% |
| 40 | Primera División Peru | 45 | 71% |
Leagues with 8 + settled picks. Click a column to sort.
Why every pick stays public
Any site can claim a win rate. FootyMind shows the working: every number on this page comes from settled picks, including the leagues and markets where the model is weakest. Picks lock at kick-off, settle automatically on the 90-minute score and are never edited – the day-by-day list is on the results page.
Read hit rate alongside price. Short-priced markets land more often and pay less; value picks chase longer prices and land less often. What happened last month says nothing certain about tomorrow – stake only what you can afford.
Frequently asked questions
What is FootyMind's hit rate?
5553 of 8623 settled Mind picks landed over 30 days – 64%. The record is complete; nothing is removed.
Where does the model do best?
At the moment, the UEFA Champions League (Europe): 75% across 36 picks. These league figures move from month to month.
Do higher Mind Scores really land more often?
They should, and the calibration rows above test it: each band compares the model's average probability with what actually happened.
How is a pick settled?
90 minutes plus stoppage time, the bookmaker standard. Extra time and penalties do not count; postponed or abandoned games are void.