Sunday 15 November: the model qualifies 36 games for over/under cards, at an average Mind Score of 60. Top of the list: Jaraaf vs Teungueth – Under 2.5 goals (MS 75).
Tight, evenly matched, low-scoring games – the type that get scrappy – with our call for each. Ranked by Mind Score – open any game for the full analysis.
Ligue 1
Top Mind Score 
Jaraafvs
TeunguethThe model sees few chances: 1.6 goals in total. The line lands in 75% of the model's runs. The 1.25 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Full analysisLigue 1
#2 
Pikinevs
OuakamOnly 1.9 goals projected – a low-event game. Mind Score 71. Price check: 1.28 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
Full analysis
Torneo Federal A
#3 
Gimnasia Chivilcoyvs
Douglas HaigThe model sees few chances: 1.8 goals in total. Probability 67%. Price check: 1.53 is close to fair.
Full analysis
First League
#4 
FC UFAvs
Spartak KostromaOnly 2.1 goals projected – a low-event game. Probability 64%. Spartak Kostroma's recent sample is poor: LLDL. Price check: 1.44 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
Full analysis
Costa-RicaLiga De AscensoHomeDrawAwayMind pick
El-SalvadorPrimera DivisionHomeDrawAwayMind pickRussiaSecond League A Fall Season GoldHomeDrawAwayMind pick
PortugalSegunda LigaHomeDrawAwayMind pick
SpainTercera División RFEF Group 9HomeDrawAwayMind pick
UkrainePersha LigaHomeDrawAwayMind pick
BulgariaSecond LeagueHomeDrawAwayMind pick
GreeceGamma Ethniki Group 9HomeDrawAwayMind pick
ItalySerie D Girone CHomeDrawAwayMind pickItalySerie D Girone FHomeDrawAwayMind pickItalySerie D Girone BHomeDrawAwayMind pickItalySerie D Girone AHomeDrawAwayMind pickItalySerie D Girone IHomeDrawAwayMind pick
SerbiaPrva LigaHomeDrawAwayMind pickSpainTercera División RFEF Group 1HomeDrawAwayMind pickItalySerie C Girone CHomeDrawAwayMind pickSpainPrimera División RFEF Group 2HomeDrawAwayMind pick
ColombiaPrimera BHomeDrawAwayMind pick
USANWSL WomenHomeDrawAwayMind pick36 qualifying games on Sunday 15 November, average Mind Score 60. Highest still to play: Jaraaf vs Teungueth (Ligue 1) – Under 2.5 goals, MS 75. Leagues with the most entries: Italy Serie D Girone C (4), Russia Second League A Fall Season Gold (2), Portugal Segunda Liga (2). 6 carry a price longer than the model's fair odds.
Over/Under cards settles on bookings shown. As with corners, our feed has no card data, so this page lists games whose profile tends to get scrappy: evenly matched, low projected goals and high stakes.
Your bookmaker sets the card line and how red cards count. The pick shown is our result or goals call for each game.
Tight, even contests with little between the sides tend to see more fouls and bookings than one-sided games.
The model rates each team's attack and defence from roughly a season of results, weighted towards recent games. Those ratings give a goal projection for both sides, and the projection becomes a grid of every possible score. Every market – this one included – is read from that grid, so a match's picks never contradict each other. Bookmaker prices are shown alongside; when the Mind Score beats what the price implies, the pick carries value. Full detail on how the model works.
Prefer a ready-made ticket? Try the free slips, the accumulator or compare every market.
No – we flag the games likely to be scrappy and show our main pick for them.
Readers asked for it; we keep it honest about what the data can and cannot say.
Every team carries attack and defence ratings. The model projects each side's goals, builds a grid of every possible score and reads the over/under cards probability straight from it. Highest Mind Scores come first.
The model's probability for the pick, out of 100. MS 70 means roughly seven landings in ten similar games – and three misses.
Never. Every pick settles on the 90-minute score and stays on the Yesterday tab and the track record.
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