Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama prediction: Under 3.5 goals
Only 3.0 goals projected – a low-event game. Probability 63%. Chapecoense-sc arrive off a defeat (LLW); Vasco DA Gama have taken 3 wins from 5 (WWLLW). The 1.47 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The away side carries the numbers: Vasco DA Gama 67%, Chapecoense-sc 17%. Table: Chapecoense-sc 20th (21 pts), Vasco DA Gama 13th (41 pts).
Recent form
The last six for Chapecoense-sc read L L W L L L (one win). Most recent: v Mirassol, 1–2 (lost). Output has stalled at 0.7 goals a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama bring a W W L L W L line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Palmeiras, 2–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 2.0 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Chapecoense-sc 0.9, Vasco DA Gama 2.1 – 3.0 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 58%, both to score at 57%.
The pick
Where the model lands: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 63, bookmaker price around 1.47 against a fair 1.58. Likeliest score: Chapecoense-sc 0–2 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Chapecoense-sc
last 6- Lv Mirassol1–23 Nov
- L@ RB Bragantino0–328 Oct
- Wv Fluminense2–124 Oct
- L@ Botafogo0–117 Oct
- Lv Atletico Paranaense1–412 Oct
- L@ Vitoria0–48 Oct
Vasco DA Gama
last 6- Wv Palmeiras2–18 Nov
- W@ Atletico Paranaense3–14 Nov
- L@ Palmeiras0–11 Nov
- Lv Flamengo1–430 Oct
- Wv Corinthians3–224 Oct
- Lv Boca Juniors1–321 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 63, priced around 1.47 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Chapecoense-sc or Vasco DA Gama?
The model gives Chapecoense-sc 17%, the draw 17% and Vasco DA Gama 67%.
What is the likeliest score in Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Chapecoense-sc 0–2 Vasco DA Gama.
How many goals are expected in Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Around 3.0 in total – over 2.5 rates 58% and both teams to score 57%.
When does Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Arena Condá – Serie A.