Northern Ireland vs Ukraine prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Only 1.8 goals projected – a low-event game. Probability 68%. Price check: 1.48 is close to fair.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A modest home lean: Northern Ireland 47%, Ukraine 28%, draw 25%. Table: Northern Ireland 1st (11 pts), Ukraine 3rd (4 pts).
Recent form
Northern Ireland – sample of six: D W D W L W, with three wins. Most recent: v Georgia, 0–0 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 0.5 a game. 5 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
The last six for Ukraine read L L D W W W (three wins). Most recent: v Hungary, 1–2 (lost). Output has stalled at 0.8 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Head-to-head
Latest (Oct 2026): Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Northern Ireland 1.1, Ukraine 0.7 – 1.8 in total. Few chances projected: under 2.5 at 68%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Under 2.5 goals – Mind Score 68, bookmaker price around 1.48 against a fair 1.47. Likeliest score: Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Northern Ireland
last 6- Dv Georgia0–05 Oct
- W@ Ukraine3–02 Oct
- Dv Hungary0–028 Sep
- W@ Georgia1–025 Sep
- L@ France1–38 Jun
- Wv Guinea1–04 Jun
Ukraine
last 6- Lv Hungary1–25 Oct
- Lv Northern Ireland0–32 Oct
- D@ Georgia0–028 Sep
- W@ Hungary1–025 Sep
- W@ Poland2–031 May
- Wv Albania1–031 Mar
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Oct 2026Ukraine0–3Northern Ireland
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Ireland | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 5 | -4 | 2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League page →
Kosovo0
Israel0
Norway3
Wales1
Portugal1
Denmark4
Austria1
Rep. Of Ireland0
Romania2
Poland1
Sweden3
Bosnia & Herzegovina2Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
The Mind pick is Under 2.5 goals with a Mind Score of 68, priced around 1.48 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Northern Ireland or Ukraine?
The model gives Northern Ireland 47%, the draw 25% and Ukraine 28%.
What is the likeliest score in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine.
How many goals are expected in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Around 1.8 in total – over 2.5 rates 32% and both teams to score 48%.
When does Northern Ireland vs Ukraine kick off?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Windsor Park – UEFA Nations League.