Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Fri 13 Nov 2026 · Stade du 4 Aout Full time

Mauritania

LDWWL

62%Burkina Faso24%Draw14%Mauritania

Burkina Faso vs Mauritania prediction: Burkina Faso to win

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Burkina Faso to win

Projected goals favour Burkina Faso: 1.7 against 0.7. Price check: 1.55 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.

62Mind Score Odds1.55 Score1–0

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Burkina Faso1.5562% X · Draw3.6824% 2 · Mauritania6.1414%

Double chance

1X1.0886% 121.2376% X22.3238%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.4267% Under 1.52.7033%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.52.1942% Under 2.51.5458%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.54.1022% Under 3.51.1678%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.3149% NG · No1.5551%

Half-time result

HT 12.1243% HT X2.0543% HT 27.1214%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

Burkina Faso are clear favourites at 62% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: Burkina Faso 2nd (10 pts), Mauritania 3rd (7 pts).

Recent form

The last six for Burkina Faso read L W D D L D (one win). Most recent: at Argentina, 0–7 (lost). Just 0.8 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal.

Mauritania – sample of five: L W W D L, with two wins. Most recent: at Benin, 1–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.4 and 1.2 a game.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Burkina Faso 1.7, Mauritania 0.7 – 2.4 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 42%, BTTS 49%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Burkina Faso to win – Mind Score 62, bookmaker price around 1.55 against a fair 1.62. Likeliest score: Burkina Faso 1–0 Mauritania. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.