South Melbourne vs Adelaide United prediction: Adelaide United or draw
Adelaide United avoid defeat in 83% of the model's runs. Adelaide United's recent sample is poor: DLLLL. The bookmaker's 1.30 beats the model's fair price of 1.21.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Adelaide United shade it on the road, 28% to 17%.
Recent form
South Melbourne bring a W D W W L W line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: at Oakleigh Cannons, 2–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 0.7 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
The last six for Adelaide United read L D W W D D (two wins). Most recent: v Auckland, 0–3 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.3 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Adelaide United or draw – Mind Score 83, bookmaker price around 1.30 against a fair 1.21. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
South Melbourne
last 6- W@ Oakleigh Cannons2–124 Jul
- Dv Preston Lions0–018 Jul
- W@ Dandenong City2–010 Jul
- Wv Dandenong Thunder1–05 Jul
- Lv Green Gully1–228 Jun
- W@ Bentleigh Greens5–119 Jun
Adelaide United
last 6- Lv Auckland0–315 May
- D@ Auckland1–19 May
- W@ Melbourne City2–126 Apr
- Wv Macarthur3–119 Apr
- D@ Newcastle Jets1–111 Apr
- Dv Auckland1–13 Apr
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
More Australia Cup predictions
League page →
Sydney Olympic0
Brisbane Roar3Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for South Melbourne vs Adelaide United?
The Mind pick is Adelaide United or draw with a Mind Score of 83, priced around 1.30 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, South Melbourne or Adelaide United?
The model gives South Melbourne 17%, the draw 54% and Adelaide United 28%.
When does South Melbourne vs Adelaide United kick off?
Thursday 30 July 2026, 10:30 WAT, at Lakeside Stadium – Australia Cup.