Cardiff vs Burnley prediction: Cardiff to win
The model lands a Cardiff win in 65% of simulations. Cardiff won most recently (WDL); Burnley arrive off a defeat (LDD). The bookmaker's 1.95 beats the model's fair price of 1.54.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Cardiff are clear favourites at 65% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: Cardiff 14th (18 pts), Burnley 22nd (10 pts).
Recent form
Cardiff – sample of six: D L W D W L, with two wins. Most recent: v West Ham, 3–3 (drawn). The attack is running at 2.0 per game.
Burnley bring a D D L L D W line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: at QPR, 1–1 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.5 and 1.5 a game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Cardiff 2.1, Burnley 1.1 – 3.2 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 63%, BTTS 64%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Cardiff to win – Mind Score 65, bookmaker price around 1.95 against a fair 1.54. Likeliest score: Cardiff 2–1 Burnley. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Cardiff
last 6- Dv West Ham3–34 Nov
- L@ Wolves0–331 Oct
- Wv Birmingham1–024 Oct
- D@ Middlesbrough2–217 Oct
- Wv Watford5–113 Oct
- L@ Blackburn1–210 Oct
Burnley
last 6- D@ QPR1–13 Nov
- Dv Portsmouth0–031 Oct
- L@ Lincoln1–424 Oct
- Lv Wolves1–216 Oct
- Dv Charlton2–213 Oct
- W@ Watford4–010 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Cardiff vs Burnley?
The Mind pick is Cardiff to win with a Mind Score of 65, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Cardiff or Burnley?
The model gives Cardiff 65%, the draw 14% and Burnley 22%.
What is the likeliest score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Cardiff 2–1 Burnley.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Around 3.2 in total – over 2.5 rates 63% and both teams to score 64%.
When does Cardiff vs Burnley kick off?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Cardiff City Stadium – Championship.