Amiens vs Caen prediction: Under 3.5 goals
Only 2.4 goals projected – a low-event game. The line lands in 74% of the model's runs. Amiens's latest result was a win (WWD); Caen's latest result was a win (WWD). At 1.33 the market and the model roughly agree.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A modest home lean: Amiens 46%, Caen 29%, draw 25%. Table: Amiens 5th (20 pts), Caen 3rd (22 pts).
Recent form
Amiens bring a W W D D W D line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: at OM Cambrai, 3–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 0.5 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Caen – sample of six: W W D W L W, with four wins. Most recent: at Choisy au Bac, 2–0 (won). Output is high: 2.0 goals a game across the sample.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Amiens 1.5, Caen 0.9 – 2.4 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 46%, BTTS 52%.
The pick
Where the model lands: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 74, bookmaker price around 1.33 against a fair 1.35. Likeliest score: Amiens 1–0 Caen. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Amiens
last 6- W@ OM Cambrai3–014 Nov
- W@ Aubagne2–07 Nov
- Dv Thionville Lusitanos1–129 Oct
- D@ Valenciennes1–117 Oct
- Wv Villefranche3–03 Oct
- D@ Quevilly1–126 Sep
Caen
last 6- W@ Choisy au Bac2–014 Nov
- Wv Versailles1–07 Nov
- D@ Le Puy Foot2–231 Oct
- Wv La Roche VF2–115 Oct
- L@ Fleury 912–33 Oct
- Wv Rouen3–224 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
National 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Roche VF | 12 | +9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Rouen | 12 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Caen | 12 | +7 | 22 |
| 4 |  Versailles | 12 | +5 | 22 |
| 5 |  Amiens | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 6 |  Concarneau | 12 | +5 | 20 |
| 7 |  Cannes | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 |  Le Puy Foot | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 9 |  Gobelins | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Quevilly | 12 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 |  Thionville Lusitanos | 12 | 0 | 16 |
| 12 |  Fleury 91 | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 |  Bastia | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 |  Orleans | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Valenciennes | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 |  Villefranche | 12 | -16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Aubagne | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 12 | -13 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Amiens vs Caen?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 74, priced around 1.33 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Amiens or Caen?
The model gives Amiens 46%, the draw 25% and Caen 29%.
What is the likeliest score in Amiens vs Caen?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Amiens 1–0 Caen.
How many goals are expected in Amiens vs Caen?
Around 2.4 in total – over 2.5 rates 46% and both teams to score 52%.
When does Amiens vs Caen kick off?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Stade de la Licorne – National 1.