FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction: Over 2.5 goals
An open game on paper: 4.1 projected goals. Probability 77%. 3 without a win for FSV Mainz 05 (LLL); Bayern München are unbeaten across their last 5 (WWDWW). At 1.25 the market and the model roughly agree.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The away side carries the numbers: Bayern München 70%, FSV Mainz 05 13%. Table: FSV Mainz 05 12th (10 pts), Bayern München 1st (21 pts).
Recent form
The last six for FSV Mainz 05 read L L L W L W (two wins). Most recent: at SV Elversberg, 1–4 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 2.2 a game.
The last six for Bayern München read W D W W D W (four wins). Most recent: at Atletico Madrid, 2–0 (won). The attack is running at 3.5 per game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.3, Bayern München 2.9 – 4.1 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 77%, both to score at 64%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Over 2.5 goals – Mind Score 77, bookmaker price around 1.25 against a fair 1.30. Likeliest score: FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern München. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
FSV Mainz 05
last 6- L@ SV Elversberg1–430 Oct
- L@ VfL Bochum0–227 Oct
- Lv Werder Bremen2–324 Oct
- W@ FC Schalke 041–017 Oct
- Lv Bayer Leverkusen3–410 Oct
- W@ Waldhof Mannheim3–03 Oct
Bayern München
last 6- W@ Atletico Madrid2–03 Nov
- Dv Borussia Dortmund2–231 Oct
- Wv 1. FC Magdeburg6–128 Oct
- W@ SC Freiburg3–125 Oct
- Dv Arsenal2–221 Oct
- Wv RB Leipzig6–117 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 9 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 9 | +14 | 18 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  FC Augsburg | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln | 9 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 9 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | -13 | 4 |
More Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The Mind pick is Over 2.5 goals with a Mind Score of 77, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, FSV Mainz 05 or Bayern München?
The model gives FSV Mainz 05 13%, the draw 17% and Bayern München 70%.
What is the likeliest score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayern München.
How many goals are expected in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München?
Around 4.1 in total – over 2.5 rates 77% and both teams to score 64%.
When does FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München kick off?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 15:30 WAT, at Mewa Arena – Bundesliga.