Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza prediction: Over 1.5 goals
An open game on paper: 2.7 projected goals. The line lands in 74% of the model's runs. Fuerte San Francisco won most recently (WDDL); Alianza arrive off a defeat (LWLDW). Price check: 1.25 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A slight away lean – Alianza 54%, Fuerte San Francisco 26%. Table: Fuerte San Francisco 11th (17 pts), Alianza 7th (26 pts).
Recent form
Fuerte San Francisco bring a D D L L L W line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: at FAS, 2–2 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 2.2 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Alianza – sample of six: W L L D W L, with two wins. Most recent: v Águila, 3–2 (won). Just 0.8 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal.
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Fuerte San Francisco 0 wins, Alianza 2, draws 1; 3.3 goals per game. Latest (Sep 2026): Alianza 2–2 Fuerte San Francisco. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Fuerte San Francisco 1.0, Alianza 1.6 – 2.7 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 50%, BTTS 58%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 74, bookmaker price around 1.25 against a fair 1.36. Likeliest score: Fuerte San Francisco 1–2 Alianza. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Fuerte San Francisco
last 6- D@ FAS2–29 Nov
- D@ Municipal Limeño1–15 Nov
- Lv Águila3–41 Nov
- Lv Atletico Balboa1–224 Oct
- L@ Isidro Metapán2–318 Oct
- Wv Cacahuatique2–110 Oct
Alianza
last 6- Wv Águila3–28 Nov
- L@ Firpo0–25 Nov
- L@ Atletico Balboa0–11 Nov
- Dv CD Marathon0–028 Oct
- Wv Isidro Metapán1–025 Oct
- L@ CD Marathon1–221 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Sep 2026Alianza2–2Fuerte San Francisco
- 1 May 2026Fuerte San Francisco0–1Alianza
- 8 Mar 2026Alianza3–2Fuerte San Francisco
Primera Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 20 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Isidro Metapán | 20 | +6 | 35 |
| 3 |  FAS | 20 | +10 | 34 |
| 4 |  Águila | 20 | +9 | 31 |
| 5 |  Inter | 21 | +9 | 31 |
| 6 |  Platense | 20 | +2 | 27 |
| 7 |  Alianza | 20 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 |  Municipal Limeño | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 9 |  Atletico Balboa | 20 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Cacahuatique | 21 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 21 | -15 | 17 |
| 12 |  Inca Aruba | 20 | -22 | 17 |
More Primera Division predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 74, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Fuerte San Francisco or Alianza?
The model gives Fuerte San Francisco 26%, the draw 21% and Alianza 54%.
What is the likeliest score in Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Fuerte San Francisco 1–2 Alianza.
How many goals are expected in Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza?
Around 2.7 in total – over 2.5 rates 50% and both teams to score 58%.
When does Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza kick off?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 22:30 WAT – Primera Division.