Conil vs Xerez Deportivo prediction: Over 1.5 goals
An open game on paper: 2.4 projected goals. The line lands in 69% of the model's runs. The 1.32 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Xerez Deportivo shade it on the road, 47% to 29%. Table: Conil 12th (11 pts), Xerez Deportivo 4th (18 pts).
Recent form
The last six for Conil read L D D W L W (two wins). Most recent: at Betis C, 3–4 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.2 and 1.3 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Xerez Deportivo bring a D W W W D D line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Dos Hermanas, 1–1 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.2 a game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Conil 1.1, Xerez Deportivo 1.4 – 2.4 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 44%, BTTS 47%.
The pick
The Mind pick: Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 69, bookmaker price around 1.32 against a fair 1.44. Likeliest score: Conil 1–2 Xerez Deportivo. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Conil
last 6- L@ Betis C3–48 Nov
- Dv Bollullos0–01 Nov
- D@ Sevilla III0–025 Oct
- Wv Portuense2–118 Oct
- L@ Ceuta II0–310 Oct
- Wv Córdoba II2–04 Oct
Xerez Deportivo
last 6- Dv Dos Hermanas1–18 Nov
- W@ Tomares1–01 Nov
- Wv Chiclana3–225 Oct
- W@ Egabrense2–118 Oct
- Dv San Roque Lepe2–211 Oct
- D@ Recreativo Huelva1–14 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 10 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dos Hermanas | 10 | +14 | 23 |
| 2 |  Portuense | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 |  San Roque Lepe | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 |  Xerez Deportivo | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Betis C | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Tomares | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Utrera | 9 | -1 | 16 |
| 8 |  Egabrense | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |  Pozoblanco | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Linense | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Ceuta II | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Conil | 10 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 |  Cádiz II | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Chiclana | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sevilla III | 11 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 |  Atlético Onubense | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Bollullos | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 |  Córdoba II | 9 | -4 | 7 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 10 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Conil vs Xerez Deportivo?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 69, priced around 1.32 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Conil or Xerez Deportivo?
The model gives Conil 29%, the draw 24% and Xerez Deportivo 47%.
What is the likeliest score in Conil vs Xerez Deportivo?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Conil 1–2 Xerez Deportivo.
How many goals are expected in Conil vs Xerez Deportivo?
Around 2.4 in total – over 2.5 rates 44% and both teams to score 47%.
When does Conil vs Xerez Deportivo kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 10.