Marchamalo vs Villarrubia prediction: Over 1.5 goals
An open game on paper: 2.6 projected goals. Probability 70%. Price check: 1.35 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A near-even split in the model – home 36%, draw 22%, away 42%. Table: Marchamalo 13th (12 pts), Villarrubia 11th (13 pts).
Recent form
Marchamalo – sample of six: L D L W L D, with one win. Most recent: at Toledo, 0–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 2.2 a game.
Villarrubia bring a W W W D W L line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: at Marchamalo, 3–1 (won). The attack is running at 2.0 per game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Marchamalo 1.2, Villarrubia 1.4 – 2.6 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 45%, BTTS 58%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 70, bookmaker price around 1.35 against a fair 1.43. Likeliest score: Marchamalo 1–2 Villarrubia. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Marchamalo
last 6- L@ Toledo0–28 Nov
- Dv Quintanar del Rey3–331 Oct
- L@ San Clemente1–325 Oct
- Wv Socuéllamos1–017 Oct
- L@ Almansa1–310 Oct
- Dv Tarancón2–23 Oct
Villarrubia
last 6- W@ Marchamalo3–114 Nov
- W@ Quintanar del Rey2–18 Nov
- Wv Socuéllamos1–01 Nov
- D@ Tarancón1–124 Oct
- Wv Guadalajara II4–018 Oct
- L@ CD Villa1–211 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 18 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchego | 10 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Toledo | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Villacañas | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 |  CD Villa | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Villarrobledo | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Illescas | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Tarancón | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  San Clemente | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Noblejas | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torrijos | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Villarrubia | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Almansa | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 13 |  Marchamalo | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 |  La Solana | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 |  Socuéllamos | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Huracán Balazote | 10 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  Quintanar del Rey | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara II | 10 | -15 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 18 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Marchamalo vs Villarrubia?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 70, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Marchamalo or Villarrubia?
The model gives Marchamalo 36%, the draw 22% and Villarrubia 42%.
What is the likeliest score in Marchamalo vs Villarrubia?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Marchamalo 1–2 Villarrubia.
How many goals are expected in Marchamalo vs Villarrubia?
Around 2.6 in total – over 2.5 rates 45% and both teams to score 58%.
When does Marchamalo vs Villarrubia kick off?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 18.