North & Central America CONCACAF Nations League Sun 15 Nov 2026 · Independence Park Full time

Jamaica vs Mexico prediction: Under 3.5 goals

The Mind pick · Missed ✗ Under 3.5 goals

2.4 projected goals keeps this under 3.5. The line lands in 76% of the model's runs. The 1.22 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.

76Mind Score Odds1.22 Score0–1

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Jamaica7.7022% X · Draw4.1524% 2 · Mexico1.4154%

Double chance

1X2.7046% 121.1876% X21.0578%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.2870% Under 1.53.0830%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.52.0145% Under 2.51.7455%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.53.4824% Under 3.51.2276%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.2253% NG · No1.5947%

Half-time result

HT 17.6025% HT X2.1745% HT 21.9730%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

A slight away lean – Mexico 54%, Jamaica 22%.

Recent form

The last six for Jamaica read W D W L W W (four wins). Most recent: v Mexico, 3–2 (won). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 1.0 a game.

Mexico – sample of six: L L L D D L, with zero wins. Most recent: at Jamaica, 2–3 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 2.2 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Jamaica 1.1, Mexico 1.3 – 2.4 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 45%, BTTS 53%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 76, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.32. Likeliest score: Jamaica 0–1 Mexico. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.