399 matches analysed today 12 live now 30-day hit rate 74% 06:08 WATTelegram18+
England FA Cup Sat 7 Nov 2026 · Kassam Stadium Full time

Oxford United

WDWDW
0–1
Half-time 0–1

Stevenage

WLWLD
52%Oxford United22%Draw26%Stevenage

Oxford United vs Stevenage prediction: Under 3.5 goals

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Under 3.5 goals

Only 2.6 goals projected – a low-event game. The line lands in 73% of the model's runs. Oxford United's last 5 reads WLWDW – 3 wins; Stevenage's form is mixed (DWD, 1 W 2 D 0 L). The 1.30 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.

73Mind Score Odds1.30 Score1–0

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Oxford United2.0552% X · Draw3.3022% 2 · Stevenage3.7026%

Double chance

1X1.2874% 121.3378% X21.7348%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.3072% Under 1.53.4028%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.52.0047% Under 2.51.8053%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.53.4027% Under 3.51.3073%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes1.8055% NG · No1.9545%

Half-time result

HT 12.6236% HT X2.2043% HT 24.0021%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

A modest home lean: Oxford United 52%, Stevenage 26%, draw 22%.

Recent form

Oxford United – sample of six: W D W D W D, with three wins. Most recent: v Reading, 2–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.2 and 0.5 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.

The last six for Stevenage read D L W L W W (three wins). Most recent: at Leicester, 2–2 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.0 a game.

Head-to-head

Latest (Aug 2026): Stevenage 1–2 Oxford United. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Oxford United 1.6, Stevenage 1.0 – 2.6 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 47%, BTTS 55%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 73, bookmaker price around 1.30 against a fair 1.36. Likeliest score: Oxford United 1–0 Stevenage. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.

Oxford United

last 6
  • Wv Reading2–04 Nov
  • D@ Barnsley1–131 Oct
  • Wv Stockport County1–027 Oct
  • Dv Bradford0–024 Oct
  • Wv Wigan2–120 Oct
  • D@ Mansfield Town1–115 Oct
1.2scored / game0.5conceded50%GG17%over 2.5

Stevenage

last 6
  • D@ Leicester2–231 Oct
  • Lv Milton Keynes Dons0–124 Oct
  • Wv Plymouth3–020 Oct
  • L@ Bradford0–217 Oct
  • Wv Wigan1–010 Oct
  • Wv Leicester2–16 Oct
1.3scored / game1.0conceded33%GG50%over 2.5

Head-to-head

Every meeting →
  • 22 Aug 2026Stevenage1–2Oxford United

More FA Cup predictions

League page →
FT Accrington ST0Wycombe2 292150 Pick missed ✗Both teams scoreMS 62@1.53
FT Barnet3Tranmere0 592219 Pick landed ✓Home winMS 59@1.67
FT Boreham Wood0Wigan3 662212 Pick missed ✗Home or drawMS 88@1.22
FT Bradford7Marine0 74179 Pick landed ✓Home winMS 74@1.30
FT Bromley0Rotherham2 295318 Pick missed ✗Home or drawMS 82@1.30
FT Burton Albion4AFC Rushden & Diamonds0 76177 Pick landed ✓Over 2.5 goalsMS 70@1.33
FT Carlisle1Salford City0 382141 Pick missed ✗Both teams scoreMS 63@1.50
FT Cheltenham2FC Halifax Town0 651421 Pick landed ✓Home winMS 65@1.90

Frequently asked questions

What is the FootyMind prediction for Oxford United vs Stevenage?

The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 73, priced around 1.30 by the bookmakers.

Who is favourite, Oxford United or Stevenage?

The model gives Oxford United 52%, the draw 22% and Stevenage 26%.

What is the likeliest score in Oxford United vs Stevenage?

The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Oxford United 1–0 Stevenage.

How many goals are expected in Oxford United vs Stevenage?

Around 2.6 in total – over 2.5 rates 47% and both teams to score 55%.

When does Oxford United vs Stevenage kick off?

Saturday 7 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Kassam Stadium – FA Cup.