Hercílio Luz vs Joinville prediction: Over 1.5 goals
The goal projection sits at 2.7, clear of the 1.5 line. Probability 71%. The 1.33 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Hercílio Luz edge it at home, 43% to 32%, with the draw on 26%.
Recent form
Hercílio Luz – sample of six: W W D W L W, with four wins. Most recent: at Joinville, 1–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 0.7 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
The last six for Joinville read L W L W W W (four wins). Most recent: v Hercílio Luz, 0–1 (lost). Output is high: 2.0 goals a game across the sample. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hercílio Luz 2 wins, Joinville 0, draws 0; 2.5 goals per game. Latest (Nov 2026): Joinville 0–1 Hercílio Luz. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Hercílio Luz 1.5, Joinville 1.2 – 2.7 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 47%, BTTS 53%.
The pick
Where the model lands: Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 71, bookmaker price around 1.33 against a fair 1.40. Likeliest score: Hercílio Luz 2–1 Joinville. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Hercílio Luz
last 6- W@ Joinville1–07 Nov
- W@ Santa Catarina3–21 Nov
- Dv Blumenau0–024 Oct
- Wv Barra2–017 Oct
- L@ Figueirense0–110 Oct
- Wv Nação2–126 Sep
Joinville
last 6- Lv Hercílio Luz0–17 Nov
- Wv Metropolitano3–01 Nov
- L@ Figueirense0–124 Oct
- W@ Santa Catarina3–010 Oct
- Wv Barra2–126 Sep
- W@ Nação4–019 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 7 Nov 2026Joinville0–1Hercílio Luz
- 12 Sep 2026Joinville1–3Hercílio Luz
Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Hercílio Luz vs Joinville?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 71, priced around 1.33 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Hercílio Luz or Joinville?
The model gives Hercílio Luz 43%, the draw 26% and Joinville 32%.
What is the likeliest score in Hercílio Luz vs Joinville?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Hercílio Luz 2–1 Joinville.
How many goals are expected in Hercílio Luz vs Joinville?
Around 2.7 in total – over 2.5 rates 47% and both teams to score 53%.
When does Hercílio Luz vs Joinville kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Copa Santa Catarina.