Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka prediction: Under 3.5 goals
The model sees few chances: 1.8 goals in total. Probability 83%. Price check: 1.22 is close to fair.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Bangladesh edge it at home, 59% to 21%, with the draw on 20%. Table: Bangladesh 1st (6 pts), Sri Lanka 3rd (1 pts).
Recent form
Bangladesh bring a L L L W L L line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: at Indonesia, 2–9 (lost). Output has stalled at 0.7 goals a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
The last six for Sri Lanka read W L W W W W (five wins). Most recent: at Mauritius, 3–2 (won). The attack is running at 2.5 per game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Bangladesh 1.3, Sri Lanka 0.6 – 1.8 in total. A low-event profile – under 2.5 rates 65%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 83, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.21. Likeliest score: Bangladesh 1–0 Sri Lanka. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Bangladesh
last 6- L@ Indonesia2–91 Oct
- L@ Singapore0–128 Sep
- Lv Malaysia0–325 Sep
- W@ San Marino2–15 Jun
- L@ Singapore0–131 Mar
- L@ Vietnam0–326 Mar
Sri Lanka
last 6- W@ Mauritius3–25 Oct
- L@ Mauritius0–32 Oct
- W@ Seychelles2–030 Sep
- W@ Seychelles3–027 Sep
- Wv Bhutan4–18 Jun
- W@ Chinese Taipei3–131 Mar
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
SAFF Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bangladesh | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 |  Bhutan | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 3 |  Sri Lanka | 2 | -4 | 1 |
More SAFF Championship predictions
League page →
India1
Maldives0Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 83, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka?
The model gives Bangladesh 59%, the draw 20% and Sri Lanka 21%.
What is the likeliest score in Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Bangladesh 1–0 Sri Lanka.
How many goals are expected in Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka?
Around 1.8 in total – over 2.5 rates 35% and both teams to score 49%.
When does Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka kick off?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Bangabandhu National Stadium – SAFF Championship.