Uruguay Primera División Apertura
Fri 13 Nov 2026 · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Full time
Cerro Largo vs Progreso prediction: Under 3.5 goals
Only 2.3 goals projected – a low-event game. Mind Score 78. Cerro Largo's form is mixed (DLW, 1 W 1 D 1 L); Progreso's form is mixed (DLW, 1 W 1 D 1 L). The 1.22 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Cerro Largo edge it at home, 59% to 14%, with the draw on 26%. Table: Cerro Largo 15th (9 pts), Progreso 7th (19 pts).
Recent form
Cerro Largo bring a L W L D L L line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: at Racing Montevideo, 1–3 (lost). Output has stalled at 0.8 goals a game.
Progreso bring a L W W D L W line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Defensor Sporting, 0–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.2 a game.
Head-to-head
Latest (May 2026): Progreso 0–1 Cerro Largo. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Cerro Largo 1.6, Progreso 0.7 – 2.3 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 41%, BTTS 52%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 78, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.28. Likeliest score: Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Cerro Largo
last 6- L@ Racing Montevideo1–331 Oct
- Wv Boston River2–025 Oct
- L@ Liverpool Montevideo0–121 Oct
- D@ Cerro1–116 Oct
- Lv Albion FC0–111 Oct
- L@ Danubio1–24 Oct
Progreso
last 6- Lv Defensor Sporting0–21 Nov
- W@ Wanderers1–025 Oct
- Wv Juventud2–017 Oct
- D@ Penarol1–110 Oct
- L@ Liverpool Montevideo2–33 Oct
- Wv Racing Montevideo2–126 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 May 2026Progreso0–1Cerro Largo
Primera División Apertura table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 78, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Cerro Largo or Progreso?
The model gives Cerro Largo 59%, the draw 26% and Progreso 14%.
What is the likeliest score in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Cerro Largo 1–0 Progreso.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Largo vs Progreso?
Around 2.3 in total – over 2.5 rates 41% and both teams to score 52%.
When does Cerro Largo vs Progreso kick off?
Friday 13 November 2026, 00:00 WAT, at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla – Primera División Apertura.