Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro prediction: Under 3.5 goals
Only 2.5 goals projected – a low-event game. Mind Score 74. Cerro won most recently (WLL). Price check: 1.30 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The model makes Deportivo Maldonado strong home favourites (60%). Table: Deportivo Maldonado 5th (22 pts), Cerro 6th (21 pts).
Recent form
Deportivo Maldonado – sample of six: D W W L W D, with three wins. Most recent: at Albion FC, 0–0 (drawn). Output is high: 2.2 goals a game across the sample.
Cerro bring a L L D W L D line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: v Central Espanol, 1–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 1.7 a game.
Head-to-head
Latest (Sep 2026): Cerro 1–2 Deportivo Maldonado. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Deportivo Maldonado 1.7, Cerro 0.8 – 2.5 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 48%, BTTS 55%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 74, bookmaker price around 1.30 against a fair 1.36. Likeliest score: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Deportivo Maldonado
last 6- D@ Albion FC0–03 Nov
- W@ Porongos4–029 Oct
- Wv Danubio2–124 Oct
- L@ Club Nacional2–320 Oct
- Wv Albion FC4–115 Oct
- Dv Liverpool Montevideo1–110 Oct
Cerro
last 6- Lv Central Espanol1–231 Oct
- L@ Atletico Torque1–325 Oct
- Dv Cerro Largo1–116 Oct
- W@ Defensor Sporting3–210 Oct
- Lv Wanderers0–24 Oct
- D@ Juventud0–027 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Sep 2026Cerro1–2Deportivo Maldonado
Primera División Apertura table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Atletico Torque | 36 | +18 | 64 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 36 | +21 | 63 |
| 4 |  Racing Montevideo | 36 | +14 | 61 |
| 5 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Central Espanol | 36 | -12 | 44 |
| 10 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 11 |  Cerro | 36 | -23 | 40 |
| 12 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 13 |  Cerro Largo | 36 | -8 | 38 |
| 14 |  Boston River | 36 | -14 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 36 | -18 | 36 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 74, priced around 1.30 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Deportivo Maldonado or Cerro?
The model gives Deportivo Maldonado 60%, the draw 23% and Cerro 17%.
What is the likeliest score in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Around 2.5 in total – over 2.5 rates 48% and both teams to score 55%.
When does Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro kick off?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel – Primera División Apertura.