Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction: Under 3.5 goals
2.1 projected goals keeps this under 3.5. The line lands in 80% of the model's runs. At 1.22 the market and the model roughly agree.
Your call: who wins?
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Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A slight away lean – Liverpool Montevideo 47%, Danubio 27%. Table: Danubio 16th (10 pts), Liverpool Montevideo 1st (30 pts).
Recent form
Danubio – sample of six: L W L W W L, with three wins. Most recent: v Club Nacional, 1–2 (lost). Output is high: 2.0 goals a game across the sample. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Liverpool Montevideo – sample of six: D W W W W W, with five wins. Most recent: v Juventud, 1–1 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 0.2 a game. 5 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Danubio 0.8, Liverpool Montevideo 1.3 – 2.1 in total. Few chances projected: under 2.5 at 61%.
The pick
The Mind pick: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 80, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.24. Likeliest score: Danubio 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Danubio
last 6- Lv Club Nacional1–21 Nov
- W@ Wanderers Durazno3–030 Oct
- L@ Deportivo Maldonado1–224 Oct
- Wv Central Espanol1–018 Oct
- W@ Central Espanol6–015 Oct
- L@ Atletico Torque0–19 Oct
Liverpool Montevideo
last 6- Dv Juventud1–111 Nov
- W@ Gladiador2–05 Nov
- Wv Juventud2–03 Nov
- W@ Club Nacional1–025 Oct
- Wv Cerro Largo1–021 Oct
- Wv Penarol1–018 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera División Apertura table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Atletico Torque | 36 | +18 | 64 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 36 | +21 | 63 |
| 4 |  Racing Montevideo | 36 | +14 | 61 |
| 5 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Central Espanol | 36 | -12 | 44 |
| 10 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 11 |  Cerro | 36 | -23 | 40 |
| 12 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 13 |  Cerro Largo | 36 | -8 | 38 |
| 14 |  Boston River | 36 | -14 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 36 | -18 | 36 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 80, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Danubio or Liverpool Montevideo?
The model gives Danubio 27%, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 47%.
What is the likeliest score in Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Danubio 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo.
How many goals are expected in Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Around 2.1 in total – over 2.5 rates 39% and both teams to score 51%.
When does Danubio vs Liverpool Montevideo kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Gardens of the Hippodrome – Primera División Apertura.