Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas prediction: Over 2.5 goals
The goal projection sits at 3.0, clear of the 2.5 line. The line lands in 57% of the model's runs. Leones Negros UDG were beaten last time (LWW); Monarcas carry a 3-match unbeaten sequence (WWW). Price check: 1.70 is close to fair.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A modest home lean: Leones Negros UDG 46%, Monarcas 38%, draw 17%. Table: Leones Negros UDG 2nd (30 pts), Monarcas 3rd (26 pts).
Recent form
Leones Negros UDG bring a L W L W W L line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: at Monarcas, 0–1 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.0 a game.
Monarcas bring a W W L W L D line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Leones Negros UDG, 1–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 1.3 a game.
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Leones Negros UDG 1 wins, Monarcas 2, draws 0; 1.7 goals per game. Latest (Nov 2026): Monarcas 1–0 Leones Negros UDG. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Leones Negros UDG 1.6, Monarcas 1.4 – 3.0 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 57%, both to score at 53%.
The pick
The Mind pick: Over 2.5 goals – Mind Score 57, bookmaker price around 1.70 against a fair 1.76. Likeliest score: Leones Negros UDG 2–1 Monarcas. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Leones Negros UDG
last 6- L@ Monarcas0–113 Nov
- Wv Durango2–18 Nov
- L@ Durango0–16 Nov
- Wv Tepatitlán3–11 Nov
- W@ Mineros de Zacatecas2–025 Oct
- Lv Alebrijes de Oaxaca1–218 Oct
Monarcas
last 6- Wv Leones Negros UDG1–013 Nov
- Wv Venados FC2–18 Nov
- L@ Durango1–31 Nov
- W@ Tapatío2–126 Oct
- Lv CDS Tampico Madero1–218 Oct
- D@ Tepatitlán1–110 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Nov 2026Monarcas1–0Leones Negros UDG
- 20 Sep 2026Monarcas2–0Leones Negros UDG
- 5 Apr 2026Leones Negros UDG2–0Monarcas
Liga De Expansión MX table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
The Mind pick is Over 2.5 goals with a Mind Score of 57, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Leones Negros UDG or Monarcas?
The model gives Leones Negros UDG 46%, the draw 17% and Monarcas 38%.
What is the likeliest score in Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Leones Negros UDG 2–1 Monarcas.
How many goals are expected in Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
Around 3.0 in total – over 2.5 rates 57% and both teams to score 53%.
When does Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio Jalisco – Liga De Expansión MX.