Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction: Aston Villa to win
The model lands a Aston Villa win in 67% of simulations. Aston Villa's form is mixed (DLDL, 0 W 2 D 2 L); Sunderland won most recently (WLLWD). The bookmaker's 1.70 beats the model's fair price of 1.50.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The model makes Aston Villa strong home favourites (67%). Table: Aston Villa 10th (13 pts), Sunderland 19th (8 pts).
Recent form
Aston Villa bring a W W W W L W line into this one: five wins from six. Most recent: v Bologna, 4–0 (won). The attack is running at 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Sunderland bring a W L W D L W line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: at Newcastle, 2–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 1.0 a game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.9, Sunderland 0.7 – 2.5 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 48%, BTTS 49%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Aston Villa to win – Mind Score 67, bookmaker price around 1.70 against a fair 1.50. Likeliest score: Aston Villa 1–0 Sunderland. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Aston Villa
last 6- Wv Bologna4–016 Apr
- W@ Bologna3–19 Apr
- Wv West Ham2–022 Mar
- Wv Lille2–019 Mar
- L@ Manchester United1–315 Mar
- W@ Lille1–012 Mar
Sunderland
last 6- W@ Newcastle2–122 Mar
- L@ Port Vale0–18 Mar
- W@ Leeds1–03 Mar
- D@ Bournemouth1–128 Feb
- Lv Fulham1–322 Feb
- W@ Oxford United1–015 Feb
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →
Burnley1Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The Mind pick is Aston Villa to win with a Mind Score of 67, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Aston Villa or Sunderland?
The model gives Aston Villa 67%, the draw 20% and Sunderland 14%.
What is the likeliest score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Aston Villa 1–0 Sunderland.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Around 2.5 in total – over 2.5 rates 48% and both teams to score 49%.
When does Aston Villa vs Sunderland kick off?
Sunday 19 April 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Villa Park – Premier League.