Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction: Manchester City or draw
Covering two results: Manchester City win or draw (83%). Manchester City arrive off a defeat (LWLD); the form line for Arsenal reads WWWD – no defeats. Price check: 1.22 is close to fair.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Manchester City are clear favourites at 63% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: Manchester City 3rd (21 pts), Arsenal 1st (27 pts).
Recent form
The last five for Manchester City read W W L L D (two wins). Most recent: v Liverpool, 4–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 1.4 a game.
Arsenal bring a D W L W D W line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Sporting CP, 0–0 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 0.7 a game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Head-to-head
Latest (Mar 2026): Arsenal 0–2 Manchester City. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Manchester City 1.9, Arsenal 0.8 – 2.7 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 49%, BTTS 51%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Manchester City or draw – Mind Score 83, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.20. Likeliest score: Manchester City 1–0 Arsenal. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Manchester City
last 5- Wv Liverpool4–04 Apr
- W@ Arsenal2–022 Mar
- Lv Real Madrid1–217 Mar
- L@ Real Madrid0–311 Mar
- Dv Nottingham Forest2–24 Mar
Arsenal
last 6- Dv Sporting CP0–015 Apr
- W@ Sporting CP1–07 Apr
- Lv Manchester City0–222 Mar
- Wv Bayer Leverkusen2–017 Mar
- D@ Bayer Leverkusen1–111 Mar
- W@ Mansfield Town2–17 Mar
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Mar 2026Arsenal0–2Manchester City
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
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Burnley1Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Manchester City vs Arsenal?
The Mind pick is Manchester City or draw with a Mind Score of 83, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Manchester City or Arsenal?
The model gives Manchester City 63%, the draw 21% and Arsenal 17%.
What is the likeliest score in Manchester City vs Arsenal?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Manchester City 1–0 Arsenal.
How many goals are expected in Manchester City vs Arsenal?
Around 2.7 in total – over 2.5 rates 49% and both teams to score 51%.
When does Manchester City vs Arsenal kick off?
Sunday 19 April 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Etihad Stadium – Premier League.