Europe UEFA Nations League Tue 29 Sep 2026 · Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán Full time

Spain vs Croatia prediction: Both teams to score

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Both teams to score

Scoring at both ends is the model's read, with 4.0 goals projected. The bookmaker's 1.95 beats the model's fair price of 1.66.

60Mind Score Odds1.95 Score2–1

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Spain1.1868% X · Draw6.5021% 2 · Croatia12.0012%

Double chance

1X1.0588% 121.1179% X24.4032%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.1091% · fair Under 1.510.929% · fair

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.3176% · fair Under 2.54.2024% · fair

Goals 3.5

Over 3.51.7757% · fair Under 3.52.3143% · fair

Both teams to score

GG · Yes1.9560% NG · No1.7540%

Half-time result

HT 11.6053% HT X2.7531% HT 29.0016%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

Spain are clear favourites at 68% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: Spain 1st (15 pts), Croatia 3rd (3 pts).

Recent form

Spain – sample of six: W D W W W W, with five wins. Most recent: at England, 3–2 (won). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 0.5 a game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.

Croatia bring a W L W W L W line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: at Czechia, 2–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.5 a game.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Spain 2.8, Croatia 1.2 – 4.0 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 76%, BTTS 60%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Both teams to score – Mind Score 60, bookmaker price around 1.95 against a fair 1.66. Likeliest score: Spain 2–1 Croatia. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.