Europe UEFA Nations League Tue 29 Sep 2026 · San Marino Stadium Full time

San Marino

DLLL

0–3

Half-time 0–2

Albania

LLLLW

8%San Marino12%Draw79%Albania

San Marino vs Albania prediction: Albania or draw

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Albania or draw

Covering two results: Albania win or draw (92%). Mind Score 92.

92Mind Score Odds– Score1–3

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · San Marino41.008% X · Draw15.0012% 2 · Albania1.0479%

Double chance

1X4.8421% · fair 121.1488% · fair X21.0992% · fair

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.0794% · fair Under 1.516.376% · fair

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.2183% · fair Under 2.55.7617% · fair

Goals 3.5

Over 3.51.5266% · fair Under 3.52.9234% · fair

Both teams to score

GG · Yes4.3352% NG · No1.2048%

Half-time result

HT 126.0012% HT X3.6026% HT 21.3062%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

The away side carries the numbers: Albania 79%, San Marino 8%. Table: San Marino 4th (0 pts), Albania 1st (12 pts).

Recent form

San Marino bring a L L L D line into this one: zero wins from four. Most recent: v Finland, 0–7 (lost). Output has stalled at 0.5 goals a game.

The last five for Albania read W L L L L (one win). Most recent: v Belarus, 2–0 (won). Just 0.6 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal.

Expected goals

Expected goals: San Marino 1.1, Albania 3.4 – 4.5 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 83%, both to score at 52%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Albania or draw – Mind Score 92. Likeliest score: San Marino 1–3 Albania. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.