Europe UEFA Nations League Thu 12 Nov 2026 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time

Italy vs France prediction: France to win

The Mind pick · Missed ✗ France to win

Projected goals favour France: 1.9 against 1.0. Price check: 1.95 on offer against a fair 1.60 – a positive edge.

62Mind Score Odds1.95 Score0–1

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Italy3.6024% X · Draw3.7013% 2 · France1.9562%

Double chance

1X1.8038% 121.2887% X21.2876%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.1879% Under 1.54.5021%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.6556% Under 2.52.2044%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.52.5035% Under 3.51.5065%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes1.5363% NG · No2.3837%

Half-time result

HT 13.7518% HT X2.3839% HT 22.6042%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

The away side carries the numbers: France 62%, Italy 24%. Table: Italy 1st (10 pts), France 2nd (10 pts).

Recent form

Italy – sample of six: W D W L W W, with four wins. Most recent: v Türkiye, 3–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 0.8 a game.

France bring a W D W W L L line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Belgium, 4–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 1.7 a game.

Head-to-head

Latest (Oct 2026): France 1–1 Italy. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Italy 1.0, France 1.9 – 2.9 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 56%, BTTS 63%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was France to win – Mind Score 62, bookmaker price around 1.95 against a fair 1.60. Likeliest score: Italy 0–1 France. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.