Europe UEFA Nations League Tue 17 Nov 2026 · Cardiff City Stadium Upcoming

Wales vs Portugal prediction: Portugal to win

The Mind pick Portugal to win

The model lands a Portugal win in 59% of simulations. The 1.44 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.

59Mind Score Odds1.44 Score0–1

Your call: who wins?

Fans' vote

Vote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Wales7.3820% X · Draw5.0021% 2 · Portugal1.4459%

Double chance

1X2.9441% 121.2079% X21.1180%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.1878% Under 1.54.6122%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.6455% Under 2.52.3845%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.52.4934% Under 3.51.5366%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes1.7849% NG · No1.9551%

Half-time result

HT 16.4019% HT X2.5641% HT 21.8540%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

A slight away lean – Portugal 59%, Wales 20%. Table: Wales 4th (3 pts), Portugal 1st (12 pts).

Recent form

The last six for Wales read L L W L L L (one win). Most recent: at Norway, 1–3 (lost). Just 0.7 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal. Zero clean sheets across the sample.

Portugal bring a L W W W W L line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: v Denmark, 1–4 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.5 a game.

Head-to-head

Latest (Sep 2026): Portugal 1–0 Wales. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Wales 1.0, Portugal 1.7 – 2.7 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 55%, BTTS 49%.

The pick

The Mind pick: Portugal to win – Mind Score 59, bookmaker price around 1.44 against a fair 1.69. Likeliest score: Wales 0–1 Portugal. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.