Europe UEFA Nations League Mon 16 Nov 2026 · Ice Rink Laugardalur Upcoming

Iceland vs Luxembourg prediction: Iceland to win

The Mind pick Iceland to win

Projected goals favour Iceland: 2.0 against 0.6. Price check: 1.30 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.

70Mind Score Odds1.30 Score2–0

Your call: who wins?

Fans' vote

Vote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Iceland1.3070% X · Draw5.0017% 2 · Luxembourg10.0014%

Double chance

1X1.0386% 121.1483% X23.4030%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.2276% Under 1.54.0024%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.7552% Under 2.52.0548%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.52.7531% Under 3.51.4069%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.2544% NG · No1.5756%

Half-time result

HT 11.7350% HT X2.4039% HT 28.5011%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

Iceland are clear favourites at 70% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: Iceland 1st (11 pts), Luxembourg 4th (3 pts).

Recent form

The last six for Iceland read W D W W D L (three wins). Most recent: at Bulgaria, 5–0 (won). The attack is running at 2.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.

The last six for Luxembourg read L L L L W W (two wins). Most recent: v Estonia, 0–1 (lost). Output has stalled at 0.5 goals a game.

Head-to-head

Latest (Sep 2026): Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Iceland 2.0, Luxembourg 0.6 – 2.7 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 52%, BTTS 44%.

The pick

Pick: Iceland to win – Mind Score 70, bookmaker price around 1.30 against a fair 1.44. Likeliest score: Iceland 2–0 Luxembourg. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.