Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar prediction: Over 1.5 goals
The goal projection sits at 2.9, clear of the 1.5 line. Probability 77%. Alianza Atletico were beaten last time (LWW); FBC Melgar's latest result was a win (WLD). Price check: 1.22 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A slight away lean – FBC Melgar 49%, Alianza Atletico 31%. Table: Alianza Atletico 7th (28 pts), FBC Melgar 5th (29 pts).
Recent form
Alianza Atletico – sample of six: L W W L L W, with three wins. Most recent: at FC Cajamarca, 0–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.5 and 2.2 a game.
FBC Melgar bring a W L D W W D line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: v Juan Pablo II College, 2–1 (won). Goals for and against: 1.8 and 1.5 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Head-to-head
Latest (May 2026): FBC Melgar 3–1 Alianza Atletico. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Alianza Atletico 1.2, FBC Melgar 1.6 – 2.9 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 55%, BTTS 59%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 77, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.29. Likeliest score: Alianza Atletico 1–2 FBC Melgar. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Alianza Atletico
last 6- L@ FC Cajamarca0–27 Nov
- Wv Juan Pablo II College1–031 Oct
- Wv Deportivo Garcilaso3–228 Oct
- L@ Sport Huancayo1–424 Oct
- Lv Universitario1–418 Oct
- W@ Sport Boys3–111 Oct
FBC Melgar
last 6- Wv Juan Pablo II College2–18 Nov
- L@ Sport Huancayo0–22 Nov
- Dv Comerciantes Unidos1–130 Oct
- W@ UTC Cajamarca2–123 Oct
- Wv Deportivo Garcilaso4–218 Oct
- D@ Universitario2–211 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 31 May 2026FBC Melgar3–1Alianza Atletico
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 42 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -12 | 31 |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 17 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 29 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 14 |
More Primera División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 77, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Alianza Atletico or FBC Melgar?
The model gives Alianza Atletico 31%, the draw 21% and FBC Melgar 49%.
What is the likeliest score in Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Alianza Atletico 1–2 FBC Melgar.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?
Around 2.9 in total – over 2.5 rates 55% and both teams to score 59%.
When does Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar kick off?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 22:00 WAT, at Estadio Campeones del 36 – Primera División.