Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca prediction: Alianza Lima to win
The model lands a Alianza Lima win in 69% of simulations. Alianza Lima's form is mixed (DWLW, 2 W 1 D 1 L); FC Cajamarca won most recently (WLLL). The 1.27 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Alianza Lima are clear favourites at 69% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work. Table: Alianza Lima 6th (29 pts), FC Cajamarca 14th (14 pts).
Recent form
Alianza Lima bring a D W L W W W line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: at Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 1–1 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.0 a game.
The last six for FC Cajamarca read W L L L L D (one win). Most recent: v Alianza Atletico, 2–0 (won). Just 0.8 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal.
Head-to-head
Latest (May 2026): FC Cajamarca 1–1 Alianza Lima. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 2.3, FC Cajamarca 0.8 – 3.1 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 61%, BTTS 53%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Alianza Lima to win – Mind Score 69, bookmaker price around 1.27 against a fair 1.45. Likeliest score: Alianza Lima 2–0 FC Cajamarca. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Alianza Lima
last 6- D@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas1–18 Nov
- Wv Cienciano1–04 Nov
- L@ Sporting Cristal2–329 Oct
- W@ UCV Moquegua1–025 Oct
- Wv Atletico Grau3–118 Oct
- W@ Cusco2–112 Oct
FC Cajamarca
last 6- Wv Alianza Atletico2–07 Nov
- L@ Sporting Cristal0–52 Nov
- Lv UTC Cajamarca1–328 Oct
- L@ Sport Boys2–425 Oct
- Lv UCV Moquegua0–118 Oct
- D@ ADT0–010 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 31 May 2026FC Cajamarca1–1Alianza Lima
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 42 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -12 | 31 |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 17 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 29 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 14 |
More Primera División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
The Mind pick is Alianza Lima to win with a Mind Score of 69, priced around 1.27 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Alianza Lima or FC Cajamarca?
The model gives Alianza Lima 69%, the draw 19% and FC Cajamarca 12%.
What is the likeliest score in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Alianza Lima 2–0 FC Cajamarca.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca?
Around 3.1 in total – over 2.5 rates 61% and both teams to score 53%.
When does Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca kick off?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 22:00 WAT, at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva – Primera División.