Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction: Over 1.5 goals
An open game on paper: 3.0 projected goals. The line lands in 78% of the model's runs. Sunderland won most recently (WLLWD); Chelsea arrive off a defeat (LWDL). Price check: 1.25 is close to fair.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A slight away lean – Chelsea 58%, Sunderland 22%. Table: Sunderland 19th (8 pts), Chelsea 5th (16 pts).
Recent form
Sunderland bring a L L W D D L line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: v Dinamo Zagreb, 0–2 (lost). Just 0.8 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal.
The last six for Chelsea read W D L W W L (three wins). Most recent: v Manchester United, 2–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 1.2 a game.
Head-to-head
Latest (May 2026): Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.1, Chelsea 1.9 – 3.0 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both to score at 59%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 78, bookmaker price around 1.25 against a fair 1.29. Likeliest score: Sunderland 1–2 Chelsea. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Sunderland
last 6- Lv Dinamo Zagreb0–25 Nov
- L@ Coventry1–331 Oct
- Wv Brentford3–228 Oct
- Dv Leeds0–025 Oct
- D@ Lech Poznan1–122 Oct
- L@ Bournemouth0–218 Oct
Chelsea
last 6- Wv Manchester United2–031 Oct
- D@ Liverpool1–128 Oct
- Lv Tottenham0–224 Oct
- W@ Everton2–017 Oct
- Wv Bournemouth5–110 Oct
- L@ Brentford0–318 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 May 2026Sunderland2–1Chelsea
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 78, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Sunderland or Chelsea?
The model gives Sunderland 22%, the draw 20% and Chelsea 58%.
What is the likeliest score in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Sunderland 1–2 Chelsea.
How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Chelsea?
Around 3.0 in total – over 2.5 rates 55% and both teams to score 59%.
When does Sunderland vs Chelsea kick off?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Stadium of Light – Premier League.