Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction: Over 1.5 goals
The goal projection sits at 3.0, clear of the 1.5 line. Probability 79%. Aston Villa's form is mixed (DLDL, 0 W 2 D 2 L); Sunderland's latest result was a win (WLLWD). At 1.22 the market and the model roughly agree.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Aston Villa edge it at home, 58% to 18%, with the draw on 24%. Table: Aston Villa 10th (13 pts), Sunderland 19th (8 pts).
Recent form
The last six for Aston Villa read D L D L W W (two wins). Most recent: at Manchester United, 4–4 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.7 and 2.2 a game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.
Sunderland bring a W L L W D D line into this one: two wins from six. Most recent: v Chelsea, 1–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 1.3 a game.
Head-to-head
Latest (Apr 2026): Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.9, Sunderland 1.1 – 3.0 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 56%, BTTS 58%.
The pick
Where the model lands: Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 79, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.27. Likeliest score: Aston Villa 2–1 Sunderland. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Aston Villa
last 6- D@ Manchester United4–48 Nov
- L@ Barcelona0–33 Nov
- Dv Fulham1–131 Oct
- L@ Bournemouth0–328 Oct
- Wv Manchester City2–124 Oct
- Wv Viking3–121 Oct
Sunderland
last 6- Wv Chelsea1–08 Nov
- Lv Dinamo Zagreb0–25 Nov
- L@ Coventry1–331 Oct
- Wv Brentford3–228 Oct
- Dv Leeds0–025 Oct
- D@ Lech Poznan1–122 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Apr 2026Aston Villa4–3Sunderland
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 79, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Aston Villa or Sunderland?
The model gives Aston Villa 58%, the draw 24% and Sunderland 18%.
What is the likeliest score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Aston Villa 2–1 Sunderland.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Around 3.0 in total – over 2.5 rates 56% and both teams to score 58%.
When does Aston Villa vs Sunderland kick off?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Villa Park – Premier League.