Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction: Under 3.5 goals
2.5 projected goals keeps this under 3.5. The line lands in 76% of the model's runs. The 1.22 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
The model makes Alverca strong home favourites (61%). Table: Alverca 11th (12 pts), Casa Pia 16th (8 pts).
Recent form
Alverca bring a L L D W W W line into this one: three wins from six. Most recent: at Benfica, 0–1 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 0.7 a game.
The last six for Casa Pia read L W W L W L (three wins). Most recent: v Sporting CP, 0–2 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 1.3 a game.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Alverca 1.7, Casa Pia 0.8 – 2.5 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 44%, BTTS 53%.
The pick (settled)
The pre-match Mind pick was Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 76, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.31. Likeliest score: Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Alverca
last 6- L@ Benfica0–12 Nov
- Lv Arouca0–124 Oct
- D@ Tondela0–018 Oct
- W@ Famalicao4–112 Oct
- Wv Rio Ave1–019 Sep
- W@ Nacional3–112 Sep
Casa Pia
last 6- Lv Sporting CP0–230 Oct
- W@ Estrela2–024 Oct
- W@ Alpendorada1–018 Oct
- Lv Santa Clara0–110 Oct
- W@ Estoril2–120 Sep
- Lv FC Porto1–412 Sep
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primeira Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 76, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Alverca or Casa Pia?
The model gives Alverca 61%, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 18%.
What is the likeliest score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia.
How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Around 2.5 in total – over 2.5 rates 44% and both teams to score 53%.
When does Alverca vs Casa Pia kick off?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at FC Alverca Sports Complex – Primeira Liga.