Castro vs Guarnizo prediction: Under 3.5 goals
2.6 projected goals keeps this under 3.5. Probability 73%. Price check: 1.24 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Castro edge it at home, 44% to 33%, with the draw on 24%. Table: Castro 13th (8 pts), Guarnizo 14th (8 pts).
Recent form
Castro – sample of six: L L L W L L, with one win. Most recent: at Vimenor, 0–3 (lost). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 2.0 a game.
Guarnizo bring a L L W L D D line into this one: one win from six. Most recent: v Revilla, 0–3 (lost). Just 0.8 goals per game in that run – a weak attacking signal.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Castro 1.4, Guarnizo 1.2 – 2.6 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 47%, BTTS 51%.
The pick
The Mind pick: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 73, bookmaker price around 1.24 against a fair 1.36. Likeliest score: Castro 1–0 Guarnizo. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Castro
last 6- L@ Vimenor0–38 Nov
- Lv Barquereño0–131 Oct
- L@ Naval Reinosa1–225 Oct
- Wv Escobedo3–017 Oct
- L@ Atlético Albericia2–410 Oct
- Lv Tropezón0–24 Oct
Guarnizo
last 6- Lv Revilla0–37 Nov
- L@ Solares0–131 Oct
- Wv Selaya1–025 Oct
- L@ Laredo2–417 Oct
- Dv Bezana1–110 Oct
- D@ Torina1–13 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tropezón | 10 | +16 | 26 |
| 2 |  Cayón | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Sámano | 11 | +16 | 22 |
| 4 |  Laredo | 11 | +12 | 22 |
| 5 |  Revilla | 10 | +11 | 21 |
| 6 |  Bezana | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Vimenor | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 8 |  Torina | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 |  Atlético Mineros | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Atlético Albericia | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Solares | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 |  Naval Reinosa | 11 | -12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Castro | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 |  Guarnizo | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 |  Selaya | 11 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Barquereño | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Escobedo | 11 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 |  Velarde | 11 | -12 | 7 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Castro vs Guarnizo?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 73, priced around 1.24 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Castro or Guarnizo?
The model gives Castro 44%, the draw 24% and Guarnizo 33%.
What is the likeliest score in Castro vs Guarnizo?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Castro 1–0 Guarnizo.
How many goals are expected in Castro vs Guarnizo?
Around 2.6 in total – over 2.5 rates 47% and both teams to score 51%.
When does Castro vs Guarnizo kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 3.