Churriana Vega vs Motril prediction: Over 1.5 goals
The goal projection sits at 2.3, clear of the 1.5 line. Mind Score 66. The 1.36 price is thin on its own; it works best inside a combo.
Your call: who wins?
Fans' voteVote, then compare the crowd with the model. Closes at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
A near-even split in the model – home 38%, draw 25%, away 38%. Table: Churriana Vega 7th (15 pts), Motril 6th (17 pts).
Recent form
Churriana Vega – sample of six: W D D D W W, with three wins. Most recent: v Atletico de Marbella, 2–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.5 and 0.5 a game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Motril – sample of six: D D L W D W, with two wins. Most recent: v Almería II, 0–0 (drawn). Goals for and against: 1.5 and 1.3 a game.
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Churriana Vega 0 wins, Motril 0, draws 2; 1.0 goals per game. Latest (May 2026): Motril 0–0 Churriana Vega. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Churriana Vega 1.2, Motril 1.0 – 2.3 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 41%, BTTS 47%.
The pick
Where the model lands: Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 66, bookmaker price around 1.36 against a fair 1.50. Likeliest score: Churriana Vega 1–2 Motril. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Churriana Vega
last 6- Wv Atletico de Marbella2–08 Nov
- D@ Almería II0–01 Nov
- Dv Granada II0–025 Oct
- D@ Málaga II1–118 Oct
- Wv Cantoria3–011 Oct
- W@ Atlético Porcuna3–24 Oct
Motril
last 6- Dv Almería II0–08 Nov
- D@ Granada II1–11 Nov
- Lv Málaga II2–425 Oct
- W@ Cantoria2–018 Oct
- Dv Atlético Porcuna1–111 Oct
- W@ UD San Pedro3–24 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 May 2026Motril0–0Churriana Vega
- 17 May 2026Churriana Vega1–1Motril
Tercera División RFEF Group 9 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Melilla | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Arenas Armilla | 10 | +10 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 4 |  Almería II | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  Málaga II | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Motril | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Churriana Vega | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 |  Marbelli | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 |  UD San Pedro | 10 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 |  Granada II | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Huétor Vega | 10 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Atlético Porcuna | 10 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 |  Torre del Mar | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Alhaurino | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Atletico de Marbella | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Mancha Real | 10 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Cantoria | 10 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Malaga City | 10 | -18 | 0 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 9 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Churriana Vega vs Motril?
The Mind pick is Over 1.5 goals with a Mind Score of 66, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Churriana Vega or Motril?
The model gives Churriana Vega 38%, the draw 25% and Motril 38%.
What is the likeliest score in Churriana Vega vs Motril?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Churriana Vega 1–2 Motril.
How many goals are expected in Churriana Vega vs Motril?
Around 2.3 in total – over 2.5 rates 41% and both teams to score 47%.
When does Churriana Vega vs Motril kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 9.