Calahorra vs Varea prediction: Under 3.5 goals
Only 2.4 goals projected – a low-event game. The line lands in 75% of the model's runs. Price check: 1.25 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.
The crowd's call
Fans' voteVoting closed at kick-off.
Price v probability
Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.
The analysis
by Ade Ola, FootyMind analystWin probabilities
Calahorra edge it at home, 52% to 25%, with the draw on 22%. Table: Calahorra 4th (21 pts), Varea 5th (19 pts).
Recent form
Calahorra bring a W W W L W L line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: at Vianés, 3–1 (won). The attack is running at 2.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Varea bring a W L L W W W line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: v Anguiano, 2–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.0 and 0.8 a game. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.
Head-to-head
Latest (Mar 2026): Varea 1–1 Calahorra. The model weights current ratings above old meetings.
Expected goals
Expected goals: Calahorra 1.5, Varea 0.9 – 2.4 in total. Goal lines sit close to even – over 2.5 45%, BTTS 44%.
The pick
The Mind pick: Under 3.5 goals – Mind Score 75, bookmaker price around 1.25 against a fair 1.33. Likeliest score: Calahorra 1–0 Varea. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Calahorra
last 6- W@ Vianés3–18 Nov
- Wv Casalarreina3–01 Nov
- Wv Yagüe5–025 Oct
- L@ Anguiano0–318 Oct
- Wv Haro Deportivo4–011 Oct
- L@ Alfaro1–24 Oct
Varea
last 6- Wv Anguiano2–08 Nov
- L@ Haro Deportivo1–21 Nov
- Lv FC Andorra0–329 Oct
- Wv Alfaro1–025 Oct
- W@ Calasancio1–018 Oct
- Wv Agoncillo1–011 Oct
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Mar 2026Varea1–1Calahorra
Tercera División RFEF Group 16 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Calzada | 11 | +6 | 27 |
| 2 |  Haro Deportivo | 10 | +10 | 25 |
| 3 |  Alfaro | 10 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 |  Calahorra | 10 | +18 | 21 |
| 5 |  Varea | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Berceo | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 |  Anguiano | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Agoncillo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 9 |  Oyonesa | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 10 |  San Marcial | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 11 |  Pradejón | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Yagüe | 11 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Calasancio | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 |  River Ebro | 10 | -12 | 7 |
| 15 |  Comillas | 10 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  Cenicero | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 |  Vianés | 10 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Casalarreina | 10 | -18 | 3 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 16 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the FootyMind prediction for Calahorra vs Varea?
The Mind pick is Under 3.5 goals with a Mind Score of 75, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
Who is favourite, Calahorra or Varea?
The model gives Calahorra 52%, the draw 22% and Varea 25%.
What is the likeliest score in Calahorra vs Varea?
The most frequent scoreline in the model's grid is Calahorra 1–0 Varea.
How many goals are expected in Calahorra vs Varea?
Around 2.4 in total – over 2.5 rates 45% and both teams to score 44%.
When does Calahorra vs Varea kick off?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 16.