Friendlies Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Estadio Alberto J. Armando Full time

Argentina vs Uruguay prediction: Over 1.5 goals

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Over 1.5 goals

An open game on paper: 3.0 projected goals. The line lands in 77% of the model's runs. At 1.30 the market and the model roughly agree.

77Mind Score Odds1.30 Score2–0

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Argentina1.6062% X · Draw3.9024% 2 · Uruguay5.5014%

Double chance

1X1.1486% 121.2276% X22.3838%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.3077% Under 1.53.4023%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.52.0053% Under 2.51.8047%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.53.5031% Under 3.51.2869%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.0057% NG · No1.7343%

Half-time result

HT 12.2047% HT X2.2037% HT 26.0016%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

Argentina are clear favourites at 62% – the ratings gap plus home advantage does the work.

Recent form

Argentina bring a W W W D W D line into this one: four wins from six. Most recent: v Benin, 3–0 (won). Output is high: 2.8 goals a game across the sample. 4 clean sheets in the sample point to a solid defensive base.

The last six for Uruguay read W W L L D D (two wins). Most recent: at India, 6–1 (won). The attack is running at 2.3 per game. Zero clean sheets across the sample.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Argentina 2.1, Uruguay 0.9 – 3.0 in total. An open profile – over 2.5 53%, BTTS 57%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 77, bookmaker price around 1.30 against a fair 1.31. Likeliest score: Argentina 2–0 Uruguay. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.