Friendlies Sat 14 Nov 2026 Full time

Ecuador vs Costa Rica prediction: Over 1.5 goals

The Mind pick · Landed ✓ Over 1.5 goals

The goal projection sits at 3.0, clear of the 1.5 line. Probability 79%. Price check: 1.22 is shorter than fair – better as an accumulator leg.

79Mind Score Odds1.22 Score2–0

The crowd's call

Fans' vote

Voting closed at kick-off.

Price v probability

Bookmaker price · model probability under each · MIND = the pick

Match result

1 · Ecuador1.2072% X · Draw5.7521% 2 · Costa Rica10.007%

Double chance

1X1.0593% 121.1279% X24.0028%

Goals 1.5

Over 1.51.2279% Under 1.54.0021%

Goals 2.5

Over 2.51.7057% Under 2.52.1043%

Goals 3.5

Over 3.52.7535% Under 3.51.4065%

Both teams to score

GG · Yes2.5049% NG · No1.5051%

Half-time result

HT 11.6254% HT X2.6235% HT 212.0011%

Prices come from our data feed when the page was built – check your bookmaker before betting. Where no bookmaker price exists, the model's fair odds (100 ÷ probability) are shown. 18+.

The analysis

by Ade Ola, FootyMind analyst

Win probabilities

The model makes Ecuador strong home favourites (72%).

Recent form

Ecuador – sample of six: D D L L W D, with one win. Most recent: v Panama, 1–1 (drawn). Output has stalled at 0.5 goals a game.

Costa Rica bring a W W L L L L line into this one: two wins from six. Most recent: v Haiti, 2–0 (won). Goals for and against: 1.3 and 2.3 a game.

Expected goals

Expected goals: Ecuador 2.3, Costa Rica 0.7 – 3.0 in total. The grid favours goals: over 2.5 at 57%, both to score at 49%.

The pick (settled)

The pre-match Mind pick was Over 1.5 goals – Mind Score 79, bookmaker price around 1.22 against a fair 1.27. Likeliest score: Ecuador 2–0 Costa Rica. Settled on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.